Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.665392 2.201003 2.928205 4.014595 5.645052e+00 8.085509e+00 12.189500
2025-02-02 1.189680 1.797012 2.780734 4.594128 8.118372e+00 1.534799e+01 33.659086
2025-02-09 0.916735 1.550604 2.749751 5.448010 1.230912e+01 3.267168e+01 124.063522
2025-02-16 0.686465 1.270742 2.527157 5.898810 1.702094e+01 6.671139e+01 566.593474
2025-02-23 0.500476 0.991928 2.159646 5.783659 2.088982e+01 1.240595e+02 3466.565146
2025-03-02 0.367071 0.767252 1.796813 5.404963 2.398173e+01 2.218177e+02 47700.512505
2025-03-09 0.298820 0.663313 1.691459 5.867492 3.428337e+01 6.504943e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.245444 0.573868 1.578772 6.260423 4.864237e+01 2.429557e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.208340 0.512319 1.520710 6.941807 7.525966e+01 1.953125e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.177959 0.457428 1.454206 7.586650 1.171627e+02 8.641683e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.146177 0.386103 1.281489 7.294678 1.453271e+02 6.526266e+10 NaN
2025-04-13 0.119890 0.322994 1.106616 6.729102 1.649361e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.102850 0.285938 1.031218 6.999286 2.502105e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.092367 0.267115 1.028779 8.090110 5.179793e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.084511 0.254608 1.051724 9.756947 1.387424e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.075122 0.232881 1.011274 10.617987 3.167769e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.064958 0.204627 0.914206 10.323042 5.164347e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.055735 0.177255 0.805551 9.510145 6.788311e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.050682 0.165130 0.784026 10.406623 2.306278e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.046062 0.153263 0.756295 11.172665 1.039189e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.042563 0.145010 0.747850 12.544983 2.035692e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.039309 0.136762 0.733858 13.863167 1.176958e+11 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.035142 0.123173 0.670349 13.225334 NaN NaN NaN